The Human Condition and its Biases.

Greetings. Confirmation Bias.

Confirmation bias is the human tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior belief structures or personal values. People openly display confirmation bias when they select information that supports their own views, ignoring valid and contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

A series of psychological experiments conducted back in the 1960s strongly suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. A logical conclusion to say the least. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a biased, one-sided manner, focusing on one possibility and ignoring all other alternatives. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Yet another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way. Human behavior on full display. 

Flawed decisions due to confirmation bias have been found in a wide range of political, organizational, financial and scientific contexts and environments. These biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of, again, valid and contrary evidence. Confirmation bias produces systematic errors in scientific research based on inductive reasoning (the gradual accumulation of supportive evidence.) Similarly, a police detective may identify a suspect in the initial stages of an investigation, but then may only seek confirming rather than disconfirming evidence. A medical practitioner may prematurely focus on a particular disorder early in a diagnostic session, and then seek only confirming evidence. 

Confirmation bias, previously used as a "catch-all phrase" was refined by English psychologist Peter Wason as, and I quote: "a preference for information that is consistent with a hypothesis rather than information which opposes it." Confirmation biases differ distinctly from what is sometimes referred to as the behavioral confirmation effect, commonly known as self-fulfilling prophecy. In such a situation, a person's expectations influence their own behavior, bringing about the expected result. Some psychologists restrict the term "confirmation bias" to selective collection of evidence that supports what one already believes while ignoring or rejecting evidence that supports a different conclusion. Others apply the term more broadly to the tendency to preserve one's existing beliefs when searching for evidence, interpreting it, or recalling it from memory.

Confirmation bias is a result of automatic, unintentional strategies rather than deliberate deception. Confirmation bias influences modern human society in several important and troubling ways, as follows: 

Social media: 

Confirmation bias is amplified by the use of filter bubbles, or "algorithmic editing," which displays to individuals only information they are likely to agree with, while excluding opposing content and/or information. Many have argued that confirmation bias is the reason why society can never escape from filter bubbles, because individuals are psychologically hardwired to seek information that agrees with their preexisting values and beliefs. Others have additionally argued that the mixture of the two is degrading democracy, claiming that this "algorithmic editing" removes diverse viewpoints and information, and that unless filter bubble algorithms are removed, potential voters will be unable to make fully informed political decisions.

The rise of social media has contributed greatly to the rapid spread of fake news, that is, false and misleading information that is presented as credible news from seemingly reliable sources. Confirmation bias is one of three main hurdles cited as to why critical thinking goes astray under these circumstances. The other two hurdles cited are shortcut heuristics (when overwhelmed or short of time, people rely on simple rules such as group consensus or trusting an expert or role model) and social goals (social motivation or peer pressure can interfere with objective analysis of facts at hand.)

In combating the spread of fake news, social media sites have considered turning toward what is called "digital nudging." This includes nudging of information and nudging of presentation. Nudging of information entails social media sites providing a disclaimer or label questioning or warning users of the questionable validity of the source while nudging of presentation includes exposing users to new information which they may not have sought out but could introduce them to viewpoints that may combat their own confirmation biased points of view.

Science and scientific research:

A distinguishing feature of scientific thinking is the search for confirming or supportive evidence as well as falsifying evidence. Many times in the long history of science, scientists have resisted new discoveries by selectively interpreting or ignoring unfavorable data. Several historical studies have demonstrated that scientists rate studies that report findings consistent with their prior positions more favorably than studies reporting findings inconsistent with their previous held positions.

However, working under the assumption that the research question is relevant, the experimental design adequate, and the data are clearly and comprehensively described, the empirical data obtained should be important to the scientific community and should not be viewed prejudicially, regardless of whether or not they conform to current theoretical predictions. Further, confirmation biases can sustain scientific theories or research programs in the face of inadequate or even contradictory evidence. 

An experimenter's confirmation bias can potentially affect which data are reported. Data that conflict with the experimenter's expectations may be more readily discarded as unreliable, producing the so-called file drawer effect. To combat this tendency, scientific training teaches methods utilized to avoid and/or prevent bias. For example, experimental design of randomized controlled trials (coupled with their systematic review) aims to minimize sources of bias.

The social process of peer review aims to mitigate the effect of individual scientists' biases, even though the peer review process itself may be susceptible to such biases. Confirmation bias may thus be especially harmful to objective evaluations regarding nonconforming results since biased individuals may regard opposing evidence or information to be weak in principle and give little serious thought to revising their own beliefs and opinions. Scientific innovators often meet with strong resistance from the greater scientific community, and research presenting controversial results frequently receives harsh peer review and negative rhetoric. 

Mass delusions:

Confirmation bias can play a key role in the propagation of mass delusions. Witch trials are frequently cited as an example. In another example, in the Seattle windshield pitting epidemic, there seemed to be a "pitting epidemic" in which windshields were damaged due to an unknown, undetermined cause. As news of the apparent wave of damage spread, more and more people checked their windshields, discovered that their windshields too had been damaged, thus confirming belief in the supposed epidemic. In fact, the windshields were previously damaged, but the damage went unnoticed until people checked their windshields as the delusion spread and spread. 

Paranormal beliefs:

One factor in the appeal of alleged psychic readings is that listeners apply a confirmation bias which fits the psychic's statements to their own lives and experiences. In the course of making a large number of ambiguous statements in each sitting, the psychic gives the client more and more opportunities to find a match. This is one of the techniques of cold reading, with which a psychic can deliver a subjectively impressive reading without any prior information about the client. 

Numerological pyramidology is a striking illustration of confirmation bias in the real world, the practice of finding meaning in the proportions of the Egyptian pyramids.  There are many different length measurements that can be made of, for example, the Great Pyramid of Giza and many ways to combine and/or manipulate them. As a result, it is almost inevitable that individuals who look at these numbers selectively will find superficially impressive correspondences, for example with the dimensions of the Earth. 

Confirmation bias. A human fallacy that will never go extinct. 

Thank you for your time and consideration.